Perth has been tipped to record the highest growth in median house prices over the next three years, as buyers return to the market amid improving conditions, a report says.
The Residential Property Prospects, 2012 to 2015 report from economic forecaster BIS Shrapnel says NSW and the resource-rich states of Western Australia, Queensland and the Northern Territory are already showing signs of recovery.
However, the rest of the country - Victoria, South Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory - will lag behind because of what the report says is an emerging excess of housing.
Perth and Brisbane were forecast to record the highest growth in median house prices over the next three years at 22 per cent and 20 per cent respectively, with Sydney just behind at 17 per cent and Darwin at 15 per cent.
This compared with a forecast nine per cent increase for Adelaide, five per cent for Hobart, three per cent for Melbourne, and just one per cent for Canberra.
Perth’s estimated median house price of $475,000 in June represents a decline of 1 per cent over 2011/12, BIS Shrapnel senior manager Angie Zigomanis said.
Mr Zigomanis said the Perth market had experienced a sustained period of weakness after becoming extremely strained at the peak of the property boom in 2007, but was now poised to make a substantial turnaround.
“Strong income growth in Western Australia through the downturn in prices, together with reductions in interest rates over 2011/12, has resulted in affordability improving significantly,” Mr Zigomanis said.
“Population growth is already accelerating as Perth also benefits from rising overseas and interstate migration and, combined with recent weak new dwelling construction, has resulted in vacancy rates tightening from 3.5 per cent at June 2011, to 1.9 per cent in March 2012.
“With unemployment in the state already leading the nation at 3.8 per cent in March 2012 and economic and income growth to continue to strengthen, the first stages of a turnaround should appear in 2012/13 before stronger price growth emerges in 2013/14 and 2014/15 as economic growth approaches a peak.”
