THE political landscape has changed significantly in recent months and, while the shift is not yet tectonic, there is much less certainty around who will be influential as this electoral cycle draws to a close.
Last year, Premier Colin Barnett looked unassailable at state level while federal opposition leader Tony Abbott’s efforts to bring about an early election appeared fraught.
Now the tables have turned considerably.
In WA, Mr Barnett is not tipped to lose, but talk last year of the Liberals winning power in their own right has largely evaporated. The 2013 election now looks a lot closer.
For the Liberals in Canberra the election next year is theirs to lose. For many in Western Australian business, most simply muse about how much damage Prime Minister Julia Gillard and her Treasurer Wayne Swan can inflict on the economy before they exit.
Federal politics
While not one of WA’s ‘Most Influential’, Resources and Energy Minister Martin Ferguson is viewed as someone who can limit the damage wrought by his own government, with the WA-based Labor parliamentarians in the federal sphere seen as too far down the totem pole to change the government’s course.
It must also be noted, however, that the three WA-based federal lower house representatives in Canberra are limited in how much they can sway Ms Gillard or Mr Swan’s thinking.
Until recently touted as a stop-gap leadership alternative, Defence Minister Stephen Smith has had a bruising few months as it became clear first that his own department had lost faith in him, and then his own government stripped the armed forces of funding needed to stay competitive. Like the resources industry, he can thank Mr Swan for making life more difficult than it needed to be.
Another local Labor heavyweight, Special Minister of State Gary Gray, also appears at odds with the powerbrokers in the union movement, having played a role in the process leading up to the first Enterprise Migration Agreement delivered for Gina Rinehart’s Roy Hill venture.
As union leader Paul Howes stated after the news of the EMA: “I thought we were actually attacking these guys at the moment”.
As a result, there is a significant question mark over how much influence on policy those few in federal Labor who understand the resources sector can have. Given the reaction to the EMA, as part of a class warfare tactic that has big implications for WA, it appears that the answer may be, not much.
Federal opposition
Oppositions generally get little oxygen, but federal Liberal leader Tony Abbott has proved an incredible force, aided and abetted by Labor’s own-goals.
With his promise to rescind the mining and carbon taxes, as well as promoting a more restrained IR agenda, his ascension into power would have a big impact on this state. At this stage the only real questions are, when and by how much he wins. Of course, stranger things have happened in politics, but right now lobbyists of all shapes and sizes will be beating a pathway to his door.
His deputy, Julie Bishop, is a Western Australian with a known penchant for fund raising who could soon be deputy prime minister and foreign minister.
Despite the significant number of additional lower house backbenchers, the rising influence in WA is seen in the Senate, with Mathias Cormann leading, ably backed up by David Johnston, Chris Back and Michaelia Cash.
This troop been vocal and pushed the policies that have given Mr Abbott political strength, includung opposition to the mining and carbon taxes.
WA Labor
It may seem an oddly inverted approach to view influence in this state’s politics from the opposition prism, but there is no doubt that the change of Labor leadership has altered the balance significantly.
While it remains early days for Mark McGowan as state opposition leader, he has very quickly scored points against a government that appeared invulnerable to attack just a few months ago.
Mr McGowan has leapt on the cost-of-living issue and accentuated an underlying theme that Mr Barnett is arrogant and out-of-touch, especially due to the rising cost of electricity.
He has also seemed impervious to the issues that are hurting Labor federally – high taxes and union sleaze. Mr McGowan will be hoping the voters keep state and federal politics separate.
“Mark McGowan is rocketing up,” said one political observer who noted the importance of Guy Houston, a former adviser to former premier Alan Carpenter and more recently Chevron, as the opposition leader’s chief-of-staff.
The new Labor leader has also inherited some positives from his predecessor, Eric Ripper, with WA Police and Road Safety Minister Rob Johnson struggling in that important portfolio, having already lost the emergency services portfolio. He is against proven Labor performer Michelle Roberts.
But, again, some of Labor’s reinvigoration in WA has come from new sources. Opposition energy spokesman Bill Johnston has scored significant hits on the government over the solar panels debacle, an area of both policy and implementation botch-up that seems more akin to federal Labor.
Opposition transport spokesman Ken Travers has also been seen as a strong performer, inflicting some damage on the state government due to overcrowding on trains.
Deputy Labor leader Roger Cook and wanna-be leader Ben Wyatt have been quieter, but both have good credentials and make the opposition team look a little more formidable now it has a stronger leader.
State government
The big question in local politics is how much Mr Barnett’s leadership style can be used against him.
“He does carry it on as a one-man show,” said one well-placed industry figure.
“His Achilles heel is an old and dated cabinet.”
It is true that Mr Barnett inherited a team that had grown old after nearly eight years in opposition, but those leading the pack in terms of influence are far from has-beens.
Treasurer and Attorney-General Christian Porter has done well to close the gap to the premier as the Liberals’ alternative leader, having waltzed through his first budget unscathed.
Transport and Emergency Services Minister Troy Buswell is also far from a has-been.
There is also Nationals WA leader and Regional Development and Lands Minister Brendon Grylls, who is a relatively youthful player in the parliament despite being the kingmaker after the last state election.
Therefore it seems any view that the government is tired near the end of its first term must come from Mr Barnett, who has dominated proceedings for three and half years after ending retirement plans to run for premier.
That is not the government’s only soft spot.
The Royalties for Regions policy that won the Nationals the balance of power looks a little frayed around the edges. Some of the money has not been spent and regional WA seems to take what has been done for granted.
Mr Grylls’ decision to challenge for the Labor-held seat of Pilbara is seen as risky.
Labor could also grab metropolitan seats back from the Liberals, who stretched significantly to make the gains they did in 2008, as well as taking back Fremantle from the former Greens member Adele Carles.
Nevertheless, most money is still on a conservative victory.
The Nationals are viewed as far more aligned to the Liberals than last election when they created the perception of free agents, which does provide more security for Mr Barnett.
In the background, there will be jostling among his cabinet for the opportunity to take over as premier if Mr Barnett wins and then steps down during the next term.
An interesting interim step may be who takes over the mining portfolio from Norman Moore when he retires from parliament’s upper house.
The position of WA mines and petroleum minister is a very powerful one and would look good for either of those most likely leadership candidates – Messrs Porter and Buswell.
Alternatively, a capable player such as Agriculture and Food Minister Terry Redman might take up the role.
That decision may have some influence on who untimately succeeds Mr Barnett.
“The industry would be very nervous having anyone but a senior person (in the resources portfolio), particularly with a royalties review,” another observer said.
“They will want a senior person that can stand up to the premier and treasurer and can push through port developments.”
In some ways, that makes either the man in charge of ports, Mr Buswell, or the man in charge of Treasury, Mr Porter, as logical choices to drop some of their less important tasks and bolt the resources portfolio onto their title.
That may have some influence on who ultimately succeeds Mr Barnett
Mr Buswell, for instance, is in better shape than his topsy-turvy political career ought to allow. He is performing well and benefiting from an alignment to Energy Minister Peter Collier, seen to be a significant player in terms of lay party politics.
Interestingly, both are thought to share a view of the world with Senator Cormann.
Mr Porter may be ahead in the leadership stakes today but is viewed by some as less well connected to the organised elements of the lay party, something that held Mr Barnett back until the party was desperate.
